YELLOW/RED ALERT: On both Growth, Valuation & Risk Metrics.
IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN (90%) THAT MARKETS WILL CORRECT BEFORE OCTOBER OPTIONS EXPIRATION!
"Managing the risk is a really important part. It's not about trying to shoot for the highest rate of return you can; it's about protecting what you have."
Leyla Morgillo, CFP, Madison Financial Planning Group.
We continue to maintain defensive protection:
High cash levels cash, low or no margin, writing calls, hedging, very short-term trading, some October puts and buying only special situations into early Fall.
We are not buying today’s pyramid games will continue forever. Some possible landmine triggers beyond Delta/Lambda/Mu Covid fears include:
Inflation > 5%.
Higher Taxation More Market Stumbles like AMZN..
Bitcoin collapses (28K support broken which it will sooner or later) would do it. Cf: bitcoin-why-you-should-be-terrified-of-owning-btc.
A change in perspective- comparing not to last month or last year, but a longer-term horizon leaves little upside to analyst projections.
Fall FED tapering or warning of future course shift or otherwise losing credibility!
The usual …